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Will AI replace Bus Drivers, School?

Drive a school bus to transport students. The percentage shown is a task-exposure model, not a prediction of certain job loss.

O*NET 30.3 · 53-3051.00 · modeled exposure, not guaranteed job loss
MODERATE TASK EXPOSURE
46%
Estimated share of representative tasks exposed to current AI capabilities.
Last updatedAugust 20, 2026
Evidence confidenceMedium
Browse this risk tierModerate exposure jobs →
Task automation shareⓘ
46%Automatable
Automatable46%
Augmentable27%
Hard to automate27%
Based on analysis of representative responsibilities and current AI capability maturity.
Category#
Trades & Physical
Field & Physical
Modeled pay midpoint$
$97,700/yr
Directional estimate — verify locally
Time until impact⌁
2–4 years
Earliest 2027 · widespread 2029–2031
Task-level replaceability ⓘ
Representative tasks ranked from highest to lowest AI exposure.
◇Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.56%
⚙Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.46%
▥Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.35%
✦Physical dexterity in unpredictable settings18%
✦Safety responsibility and on-site judgment14%
Impact timeline ⓘ
How AI assistance may move from early support to wider adoption.
2027Next2029–2031
Early impactAI begins supporting comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner..
Role reshapingRepeatable tasks become faster and more automated.
Wider adoptionThe role centers more on physical dexterity in unpredictable settings.
2–4 yearsdirectional confidence window
HOW AI CHANGES THIS JOBtyping the logic in plain English
01>Start with the real work done by Bus Drivers, School.
02>AI can help with: Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
03>If a task is repetitive and easy to check, AI pressure goes up.
04>But a person is still needed for: Physical dexterity in unpredictable settings.
05>Likely result: AI is more likely to change this job than remove it.
06>Important: 46% is estimated task exposure—not a 46% chance of losing the job.
What AI can do
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.MEDIUM
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.MEDIUM
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.LOW MATCH
How estimates work →
Your human moat
◆

Physical dexterity in unpredictable settings

MEDIUM-HIGH

Combined with safety responsibility and on-site judgment, this keeps a human in the loop.

Strength8.3
Similar-role comparison
RoleRisk
Bus Drivers, School46%
Delivery Driver45%
Machinists47%
Dredge Operators45%
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Why this score?

✓The model evaluates 3 representative core tasks.
✓The role mixes repeatable work with human judgment.
✓Occupation and task language comes from O*NET 30.3.
✓The strongest human advantage is physical dexterity in unpredictable settings.
Research basis

O*NET 30.3 occupation tasks plus the ILO 2025 exposure framework. Scores are directional estimates.

Read ILO research →
Data: O*NET 30.3 · Model framework: ILO 2025O*NET 53-3051.00Share report
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Sources for this report

Official occupation tasks; timeline remains uncertain Scores are directional estimates and sources do not endorse this site’s exact percentage.

O*NET 53-3051.00 occupation profile ↗ILO Generative AI and Jobs 2025 ↗Scoring methodology →

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