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Will AI replace Sheet Metal Workers?

Fabricate, assemble, install, and repair sheet metal products and equipment, such as ducts, control boxes, drainpipes, and furnace casings. The percentage shown is a task-exposure model, not a prediction of certain job loss.

O*NET 30.3 · 47-2211.00 · modeled exposure, not guaranteed job loss
LOW TASK EXPOSURE
14%
Estimated share of representative tasks exposed to current AI capabilities.
Last updatedAugust 20, 2026
Evidence confidenceMedium
Browse this risk tierLower exposure jobs →
Task automation shareⓘ
14%Automatable
Automatable14%
Augmentable47%
Hard to automate39%
Based on analysis of representative responsibilities and current AI capability maturity.
Category#
Trades & Physical
Field & Physical
Modeled pay midpoint$
$92,300/yr
Directional estimate — verify locally
Time until impact⌁
6–10+ years
Earliest 2032 · widespread 2036+
Task-level replaceability ⓘ
Representative tasks ranked from highest to lowest AI exposure.
✦Physical dexterity in unpredictable settings29%
✦Safety responsibility and on-site judgment25%
◇Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary.24%
⚙Fabricate ducts for high efficiency heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to maximize efficiency of systems.17%
▥Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items.12%
Impact timeline ⓘ
How AI assistance may move from early support to wider adoption.
2032Next2036+
Light supportAI provides limited help with maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary..
AugmentationTools improve productivity without owning outcomes.
Human-ledCore work stays anchored in physical dexterity in unpredictable settings.
6–10+ yearsdirectional confidence window
HOW AI CHANGES THIS JOBtyping the logic in plain English
01>Start with the real work done by Sheet Metal Workers.
02>AI can help with: Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary.
03>If a task is repetitive and easy to check, AI pressure goes up.
04>But a person is still needed for: Physical dexterity in unpredictable settings.
05>Likely result: AI mostly acts as a helper while the core job stays human-led.
06>Important: 14% is estimated task exposure—not a 14% chance of losing the job.
What AI can do
Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary.LOW MATCH
Fabricate ducts for high efficiency heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to maximize efficiency of systems.LOW MATCH
Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items.LOW MATCH
How estimates work →
Your human moat
◆

Physical dexterity in unpredictable settings

HIGH MOAT

Combined with safety responsibility and on-site judgment, this keeps a human in the loop.

Strength9.7
Similar-role comparison
RoleRisk
Sheet Metal Workers14%
Extraction Workers, All Other14%
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse15%
Carpet Installers12%
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Why this score?

✓The model evaluates 3 representative core tasks.
✓The core work depends on presence, dexterity, or accountability.
✓Occupation and task language comes from O*NET 30.3.
✓The strongest human advantage is physical dexterity in unpredictable settings.
Research basis

O*NET 30.3 occupation tasks plus the ILO 2025 exposure framework. Scores are directional estimates.

Read ILO research →
Data: O*NET 30.3 · Model framework: ILO 2025O*NET 47-2211.00Share report
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Sources for this report

Official occupation tasks; timeline remains uncertain Scores are directional estimates and sources do not endorse this site’s exact percentage.

O*NET 47-2211.00 occupation profile ↗ILO Generative AI and Jobs 2025 ↗Scoring methodology →

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Extraction Workers, All Other · 14% exposureFarmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse · 15% exposureCarpet Installers · 12% exposureView all Trades & Physical jobs →